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Post by busted1964 on Oct 20, 2012 19:07:24 GMT -5
Kodak according to Artic has less than a Zero value. I am not buying it. Then why are the creditors are agreeing to the extensions?
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Post by littlefred747 on Oct 20, 2012 19:24:35 GMT -5
Kodak according to Artic has less than a Zero value. I am not buying it. Busted... Arctic does focus on a very superficial view of EK. There is more to "the investment community's" view than a balance sheet. How else can you describe positions that are trading well in excess of 100:1 P/E.....? The current share price has less to do with the balance sheet or Intrinsic asset value than "lack of trust". Very few investors left think that the common will benefit from the asset sales to come. Arctic's view is very clinical and without artistic flair.
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Post by arcticfox on Oct 20, 2012 19:36:02 GMT -5
Kodak according to Artic has less than a Zero value. I am not buying it. Busted... Arctic does focus on a very superficial view of EK. There is more to "the investment community's" view than a balance sheet. How else can you describe positions that are trading well in excess of 100:1 P/E.....? The current share price has less to do with the balance sheet or Intrinsic asset value than "lack of trust". Very few investors left think that the common will benefit from the asset sales to come. Arctic's view is very clinical and without artistic flair. I focus on the superficials? Lol I look at the financials and the SEC reports and analyze complicated issues like ATLC and NOL and the 218 etc in more detail than any of you pumpers. Just because I don't buy any of the bullshit fantasy you guys feed on doesn't mean my views are superficial. Yes Kodak is worth less than zero to the current common shareholders. That is what it means by shares will be canceled and go to zero. It's not at zero yet because there is time value like stock options do and because the management hasn't got the heart to tell you guys yet. But when that happens you can give a big sigh and know in your heart that arcticfox was right once again.
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Post by littlefred747 on Oct 20, 2012 19:37:09 GMT -5
You show me a guy like Arctic... And I'll show you a kid that never got a Red Ryder BB gun for Christmas..!
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Post by arcticfox on Oct 20, 2012 19:38:19 GMT -5
Kodak according to Artic has less than a Zero value. I am not buying it. Busted... Arctic does focus on a very superficial view of EK. There is more to "the investment community's" view than a balance sheet. How else can you describe positions that are trading well in excess of 100:1 P/E.....? The current share price has less to do with the balance sheet or Intrinsic asset value than "lack of trust". Very few investors left think that the common will benefit from the asset sales to come. Arctic's view is very clinical and without artistic flair. What PE are you talking about? Kodak hasn't made any money since 2003. There is no earnings. There is no "E"! The P is nearly wiped out too lol.
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Post by littlefred747 on Oct 20, 2012 19:41:43 GMT -5
Busted... Arctic does focus on a very superficial view of EK. There is more to "the investment community's" view than a balance sheet. How else can you describe positions that are trading well in excess of 100:1 P/E.....? The current share price has less to do with the balance sheet or Intrinsic asset value than "lack of trust". Very few investors left think that the common will benefit from the asset sales to come. Arctic's view is very clinical and without artistic flair. What PE are you talking about? Kodak hasn't made any money since 2003. There is no earnings. There is no "E"! The P is nearly wiped out too lol. Of course I wasn't referring to EK...look at some of the pharma companies that have never turned the first profit, yet trade at multiples in the stratosphere.
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Post by arcticfox on Oct 20, 2012 20:25:28 GMT -5
What PE are you talking about? Kodak hasn't made any money since 2003. There is no earnings. There is no "E"! The P is nearly wiped out too lol. Of course I wasn't referring to EK...look at some of the pharma companies that have never turned the first profit, yet trade at multiples in the stratosphere. That is only possible if a company shows growth. Geez do we need to review investing 101 or valuation 101? Stock price is a function of earnings(or cashflow) and growth. In the short term stocks can defy gravity, in the long run the price of the stock is a function of those two numbers and book value. What is Kodak's earnings? What is Kodak's growth rate? What is Kodak's book value? Yeah pretty sad isn't it?
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Post by revinkevin on Oct 21, 2012 7:12:34 GMT -5
That is only possible if a company shows growth. Geez do we need to review investing 101 or valuation 101? Sure would have helped a whole lot of buyers.
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Post by quantguy on Oct 21, 2012 7:47:55 GMT -5
arctic, I do appreciate your analysis. You are telling many on this board something they just do not want to admit has a significant probability of being correct. As I mentioned on the other thread, you and busted have presented competing predictions and busted offered a test: creditors accepting the plan. I added the issue of some of them or others providing the financing to continue. These two results will show which analysis was correct and which was wishful thinking...
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Post by mglassma on Oct 21, 2012 9:10:53 GMT -5
Arctic, I understand that Kodak leaks money. But you are making these predictions as if the cards have already fallen. NOTHING HAS BEEN SOLD YET!!!!! You can smear Kodak but how can you smear LAZARD? They are the best in the business and have put their reputation on the line to help Kodak for reason. NO? Why is beloved Apple fighting the ten or so patents? Why? Because they must be worth something? Why did Google/Adroid and Apple and Microsft and co. come to the table to purchase part or all of Kodak's ip? Must be worth something! It is a little redundant to keep reporting how worthless common is BECAUSE THEY HAVE YET TO SELL ANYTHING! Your analysis is largely FLAWED. You haven't the slightest clue how much the IP will sell for much less the various divisions. That is BIG PEICE of missing information. don't you think? Either way, Kodak has proven that they will not allow the IP to be had on the cheap. Whether that is enough for us to survive remains to be seen. Obviously any large sale will jolt the pps in our favor. That will atleast provide exit points for those not willing to lay it all on the line. Foxy, lets see how much they bring in on top of what they shave off the top before we pretend this is anywhere near a done deal.
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Post by Admin on Oct 21, 2012 9:18:15 GMT -5
Don't even waste your time Matt.
The guy is stuck on st____, and no matter what you present, he just spins it the other way.
Kodak is still chopping away, and making settlements of all the liabilities.
Once those deals are signed, sealed and delivered, the announcements will begin.
You will see deals fall every few days, as deals get buttoned up.
Each step along the way the price of stock will go higher and higher.
The next you will hear these bozos say is, "Oh, they will just burn through that money"
Yea, whatever, by that time I will be popping bottles with models somewhere in So-hole and Bangcock
SBG
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Post by jerryfu on Oct 21, 2012 9:21:18 GMT -5
mglass Totally agree with your point. kodak will get an academy awards medal after all is said and done. all have worked to hard and has been very strategic in their adjounments for a reason soon to be found out.
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Post by arcticfox on Oct 21, 2012 9:57:06 GMT -5
Arctic, I understand that Kodak leaks money. But you are making these predictions as if the cards have already fallen. NOTHING HAS BEEN SOLD YET!!!!! You can smear Kodak but how can you smear LAZARD? They are the best in the business and have put their reputation on the line to help Kodak for reason. NO? Why is beloved Apple fighting the ten or so patents? Why? Because they must be worth something? Why did Google/Adroid and Apple and Microsft and co. come to the table to purchase part or all of Kodak's ip? Must be worth something! It is a little redundant to keep reporting how worthless common is BECAUSE THEY HAVE YET TO SELL ANYTHING! Your analysis is largely FLAWED. You haven't the slightest clue how much the IP will sell for much less the various divisions. That is BIG PEICE of missing information. don't you think? Either way, Kodak has proven that they will not allow the IP to be had on the cheap. Whether that is enough for us to survive remains to be seen. Obviously any large sale will jolt the pps in our favor. That will atleast provide exit points for those not willing to lay it all on the line. Foxy, lets see how much they bring in on top of what they shave off the top before we pretend this is anywhere near a done deal. Lazard was in it to make money. And even a great surgeon can't really perform miracles. The success of a surgery depends on 3 things. 1) patient 2) nature of disease 3) surgeon To assume that because Lazard is on board then everything must be set is simply foolish. I don't know about the value of patent and the divisions being sold? How is the patent sale going? I was the one who gave the warning over a year ago. I gave numerous analysis that explain why Kodak patents are impaired. Why '218 case will fail and why the portfolio will sell for less than $800 mil while everyone was calling for $5 billion $10 billion or more back then. Given that we have more clarity on the issue today than a year ago, I now believe the patent can't even fetch $800 mil anymore. As for the business Kodak is trying to sell, I've done the EBITDA analysis and know a ballpark figure of what is possible . Have you done the same analysis? I don't know the exact figure it will sell for but having done the analysis I know what is within reason and what is not. And frankly the amount won't matter much to the big picture because it is far less than the outstanding liabilities. The announcement of those asset sale was to take attention away from patent sale failures. We knew Kodak must sell all the noncore stuff over a year ago. If my analysis is flawed as you said then why have I been proven correct over and over again during the past year? People keep refusing to accept my detailed analysis on various issues only to find out time and time again that I was right all along. I've been here since June 2011. Go back and do a search. I've been right on the outcome and analysis of just about every single event.
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Post by Marriott on Oct 21, 2012 10:10:50 GMT -5
" The success of a surgery depends on 3 things. 1) patient 2) nature of disease 3) surgeon "
arctic :
Would you agree that time or timing is also an important factor ? The time the diagnosis is made, the time action is taken, the duration of time in the operation room ......etc
Add in the component of time accompanied with the sale of divisions, patents.....and the patient KODAK will show signs of life. Come on surgeon , help us !
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Post by onoudidint on Oct 21, 2012 10:20:05 GMT -5
is it because your an insider ?
you just know the values of all the parts from public docs ? yaeh right !
it seems that your fixed deck is being taken away and most of your calls now are checks . poker 101 !
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Post by arcticfox on Oct 21, 2012 12:32:28 GMT -5
" The success of a surgery depends on 3 things. 1) patient 2) nature of disease 3) surgeon " arctic : Would you agree that time or timing is also an important factor ? The time the diagnosis is made, the time action is taken, the duration of time in the operation room ......etc Add in the component of time accompanied with the sale of divisions, patents.....and the patient KODAK will show signs of life. Come on surgeon , help us ! Yeah.. In terms of timing, Kodak was in the wrong hands for far too long. Perez has been in charge since 2005 and gave the wrong treatment. He bled the company dry... allowed the disease to progress until its finally too late. Rather than doing what was necessary and uncovering the problems, he just kept giving false reassurance. So this is how we end up where we are today with Kodak.. on life support in the ICU. Every day this drags on chances of survival gets worse. The patent and asset sale are not going well. Everyone can see that except you longs. Something will eventually sell... but will it bring in enough to make a difference? If Kodak survive after all this, it won't be the same company and in all likelihood it won't be owned by current shareholders. That is just the logical outcome base on all the numbers I know.
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Post by arcticfox on Oct 21, 2012 12:40:50 GMT -5
is it because your an insider ? you just know the values of all the parts from public docs ? yaeh right ! it seems that your fixed deck is being taken away and most of your calls now are checks . poker 101 ! I asked you guys to figure out the value of businesses that Kodak is selling by figuring out the EBITDA of individual parts. That information is readily available. Did any of you guys bothered to do that? I did. Did you? And did you then take that value and compare it with the liabilities that I listed in a chart the other day? I did. Did you? You guys do a lot if talking, and a lot of screaming and complaining but what you don't do enough of is cool headed analysis base on rational and conservative projections. There is a reason why I've been able to predict the outcomes of so many events over the past 16 months. It's not through inside information but through deep analysis. Why would I be revealing valuable insider information in a public forum if I had them? Sometimes all the conspiracy theories here are really laughable.
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Post by Marriott on Oct 21, 2012 12:42:10 GMT -5
" That is just the logical outcome base on all the numbers I know. " arctic: Precisely !
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Post by Admin on Oct 21, 2012 12:53:49 GMT -5
Exactly Marriot!
Just like the bad deal that Kodak cut with OPEB right?
The 150 million per year saved by deciding to shut down the consumer printer division will more than pay for the cost of the OPEB.
That move will save 12.5 million per month right there.
The numbers are all shuffling around in the back ground right now, and will look totally different soon.
All of this is being worked on like a big Rubik's Cube at the moment, and the puzzle will be solved shortly.
SBG
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Post by arcticfox on Oct 21, 2012 12:55:58 GMT -5
Exactly Marriot! Just like the bad deal that Kodak cut with OPEB right? The 150 million per year saved by deciding to shut down the consumer printer division will more than pay for the cost of the OPEB. That move will save 12.5 million per month right there. The numbers are all shuffling around in the back ground right now, and will look totally different soon. All of this is being worked on like a big Rubik's Cube at the moment, and the puzzle will be solved shortly. SBG Ever consider that the final move of the rubics cube is the cancelation of the current commons?
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Post by quantguy on Oct 21, 2012 14:30:56 GMT -5
And we see who resorts to ad-hominem attacks yet again. People trained in analyzing arguments recognize an ad-hominem attack as both a logical fallacy and a sign of a failed argument.
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Post by tmarf on Oct 21, 2012 14:53:07 GMT -5
So fun to watch people trying to feign intelligence....most entertaining
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Post by mglassma on Oct 21, 2012 16:37:53 GMT -5
Arctic, I understand that Kodak leaks money. But you are making these predictions as if the cards have already fallen. NOTHING HAS BEEN SOLD YET!!!!! You can smear Kodak but how can you smear LAZARD? They are the best in the business and have put their reputation on the line to help Kodak for reason. NO? Why is beloved Apple fighting the ten or so patents? Why? Because they must be worth something? Why did Google/Adroid and Apple and Microsft and co. come to the table to purchase part or all of Kodak's ip? Must be worth something! It is a little redundant to keep reporting how worthless common is BECAUSE THEY HAVE YET TO SELL ANYTHING! Your analysis is largely FLAWED. You haven't the slightest clue how much the IP will sell for much less the various divisions. That is BIG PEICE of missing information. don't you think? Either way, Kodak has proven that they will not allow the IP to be had on the cheap. Whether that is enough for us to survive remains to be seen. Obviously any large sale will jolt the pps in our favor. That will atleast provide exit points for those not willing to lay it all on the line. Foxy, lets see how much they bring in on top of what they shave off the top before we pretend this is anywhere near a done deal. Lazard was in it to make money. And even a great surgeon can't really perform miracles. The success of a surgery depends on 3 things. 1) patient 2) nature of disease 3) surgeon To assume that because Lazard is on board then everything must be set is simply foolish. I don't know about the value of patent and the divisions being sold? How is the patent sale going? I was the one who gave the warning over a year ago. I gave numerous analysis that explain why Kodak patents are impaired. Why '218 case will fail and why the portfolio will sell for less than $800 mil while everyone was calling for $5 billion $10 billion or more back then. Given that we have more clarity on the issue today than a year ago, I now believe the patent can't even fetch $800 mil anymore. As for the business Kodak is trying to sell, I've done the EBITDA analysis and know a ballpark figure of what is possible . Have you done the same analysis? I don't know the exact figure it will sell for but having done the analysis I know what is within reason and what is not. And frankly the amount won't matter much to the big picture because it is far less than the outstanding liabilities. The announcement of those asset sale was to take attention away from patent sale failures. We knew Kodak must sell all the noncore stuff over a year ago. If my analysis is flawed as you said then why have I been proven correct over and over again during the past year? People keep refusing to accept my detailed analysis on various issues only to find out time and time again that I was right all along. I've been here since June 2011. Go back and do a search. I've been right on the outcome and analysis of just about every single event. Arctic, The bidding was around 500 million on the SECOND day of the auction. If Kodak was willing to sell these puppies for 800 million they would have been sold months ago. I am not denying you have been right about 218 and the short term auction result BUT what does that matter anymore. Now they are selling divsions on top of a pending patent sale on top of shutting cost ineffective businesses down. They have let be known to any potential buyer that if they do not pony up then Kodak will form a patent troll company. They are not going to be had in chapt 7. They have been negotiating with multiple suitors for the IP for months. Lazard will make sure Kodak hits paydirt on the IP front. 218 was out dated. While it had been tested and collected upon it does not have the shelf life of the several other DI patents Kodak is selling. You should probably focus your concerns on the patents that Apple is fighting tooth and nail to keep. There IS a reason why they are doing this AND it is not just because they can.
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