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Post by bullishbear32 on Sept 6, 2012 15:40:44 GMT -5
LIABILITIES: 1)$1.2 billion OPEB estimate: 90% NOT a legal claim, will be canceled.
2) $2 billion pension ESTIMATES $800 million eliminated from NEW US pension LAW.
$1.2 billion eliminated thru cash buyouts. CASH COST estimate: $500 million.
This leaves $2.85 billion in liabilities that must be satisfied for Kodak to pay off ALL claims and exit ch.11 with NO debt. $660 million of first lien DIP financing $750 million of 2nd lien bonds $250 million of bonds due in 2013 $400 million of convertible bonds (the ones to buy) $ 500 million of other valid claims $ 200 million of accrued interest
TOTAL CASH COST to ELIMINATE ALL DEBT: $3.4 billion
ASSETS:
CASH at year end 2012: $1.1 Billion
Kodak has announced it is selling:
1) 3 division with $1.5 billion in revenues, and appx. $180 million in 2012 EBITDA. Fair value is 8.5 times EBITDA and 1 times sales ESTIMATE: $1.5 billion in proceeds.
2) Digital Image patents ESTIMATE: $2.25 Billion (minimum)
3)Other NON core assets that have yet to be announced, but will be SOLD:
1) Real Estate: ESTIMATE: $400 million
2) consumer printer business: ESTIMATE: $ 0
3) commercial film business: ESTIMATE: $200 million
******************************************************************************************
PROCEEDS from SALES plus CASH: $5.6 Billion
NET CASH less $3.4 billion in liabilities: $2.2 Billion
*******************************************************************************************
SHAREHOLDER EQUITY: REMAINING CORE business EQUITY after ALL sales:
1) Digital & functional printing at 10X 2014 EBITDA: ESTIMATE: $1.5 billion
2)Graphics division at 8 times 2014 EBITDA and 1 times sales: ESTIMATE: $1.4 Billion
CASH ESTIMATE: $2 billion
NET INTRINSIC value: $4.9 billion or appx. $14/share fully diluted
**Research done by Pro**
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Post by bullishbear32 on Sept 6, 2012 15:42:44 GMT -5
The guy may have been mean, but he layed this out perfectly. When in doubt, turn to this post
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Post by bullishbear32 on Sept 6, 2012 16:09:05 GMT -5
Thank you for adding to the discussion. Where did you learn to analyze a company's financial so deftly?
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Post by joefarina on Sept 6, 2012 16:12:01 GMT -5
I LEARNED FROM MY BUDDY BILLY SLICK WILLIE CLINTON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Post by Marriott on Sept 6, 2012 16:33:40 GMT -5
bullishbear32 : WELCOME BACK, we missed you !
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Post by bullishbear32 on Sept 7, 2012 15:37:56 GMT -5
bump
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Post by proforkodak on Sept 7, 2012 17:24:39 GMT -5
>>>"The guy may have been mean, but he layed this out perfectly. When in doubt, turn to this post"<<<
Over the LONG term, I am a LEAN, MEAN, PROFIT MAKING MACHINE!!!!
The people who actually follow my advice, have taken FULL advantage of the choice by Kodak to use a STRATEGIC ch.11, to LOAD the BOAT at these CRAZY LOW prices!!!
EVEN relatively less than expected DI patent PROCEEDS still result in a company with NO LONG term liabilities, and over $2.2 billion of well positioned businesses that are GLOBAL LEADERS.
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Post by Marriott on Sept 7, 2012 18:16:43 GMT -5
" Over the LONG term, I am a LEAN, MEAN, PROFIT MAKING MACHINE!!!! "
What is your definition of " long term " .
" choice by Kodak to use a STRATEGIC ch.11, "
Having to make a " choice " to use Chapter 11 " means your choice stems from a position of weakness .
Time will tell if you truly had the vision to see weakness transform into opportunity transform into strength and thereby PROFIT .
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Post by proforkodak on Sept 7, 2012 18:50:18 GMT -5
Long term is OVER 1 year.
Kodak CHOSE ch.11 as it was the BEST way to MAXIMIZE shareholder value.
Go ask ex OWNER of the LA Dodgers whether CHOOSING ch.11 was the BEST way to MAXIMIZE shareholder value.
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Post by proforkodak on Sept 7, 2012 20:17:41 GMT -5
For all the Patent pussies, EVEN a $1 billion patent sale will leave Kodak with appx. $3/share in CASH, NO long term liabilities, and over $2.2 billion of business with LEADING market share and the BEST technology in the world.
I think that Kodak has CUT a deal a very private deal with Fuji!!!!
Kodak sells Fuji the still picture film business, the profitable photo finishing business, and the Kiosk business.
Fuji agrees to exit the motion picture film business.
Fuji ends up with a DEFACTO monopoly in still film, traditional photo finishing, and 70% of the kiosk business, and use of the Kodak name for these business if it wants.
Kodak gets the CASH it needs to pay off ALL its liabilities, plus more for other ventures.
Kodak gets a monopoly in motion picture film, and the archiving of film.
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Post by logik360 on Sept 7, 2012 21:04:10 GMT -5
I think that Kodak has CUT a deal a very private deal with Fuji!!!! Kodak sells Fuji the still picture film business, the profitable photo finishing business, and the Kiosk business. Fuji agrees to exit the motion picture film business. Fuji ends up with a DEFACTO monopoly in still film, traditional photo finishing, and 70% of the kiosk business, and use of the Kodak name for these business if it wants. Kodak gets the CASH it needs to pay off ALL its liabilities, plus more for other ventures. Kodak gets a monopoly in motion picture film, and the archiving of film. Interesting. Legal 'monopolies' would be avoided by the 'Digital' alternative. Such Irony!
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Post by proforkodak on Sept 7, 2012 21:26:31 GMT -5
There are numerous NICHE DEFACTO monopolies throughout society even in countries with strong ANTI Trust laws.
The GOVT cannot FORCE a company to ENTER an old business that is shrinking, but dominated by a company like Kodak.
THEREFORE, the final remaining company can EXTRACT remarkable margins because they have a DEFACTO monopoly, albeit in a relatively small and shrinking industry.
BOTH Fuji and Kodak should be able to produce remarkable margins as the SOLE remaining suppliers.
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Post by logik360 on Sept 7, 2012 21:50:18 GMT -5
Pro - Thank you for posting your thoughts on FUJI and Kodak. Great stuff!
Kodak has so many possibilities. The current PPS is low-lying fruit on which I continue to devour.
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Post by bullishbear32 on Sept 8, 2012 8:54:59 GMT -5
bump
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Post by proforkodak on Sept 8, 2012 15:30:34 GMT -5
FOR all you WORRY WARTS:
USE only $1 billion for the DI patents.
EVERYTHING stays the same.
EXCEPT Kodak ends up with $750 million in CASH and a INTRINSIC VALUE of appx.
$10.5/share
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Post by bullishbear32 on Sept 9, 2012 16:02:28 GMT -5
bump
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Post by bullishbear32 on Sept 10, 2012 10:42:09 GMT -5
will continue to bump this everyday
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Post by bullishbear32 on Sept 10, 2012 10:46:46 GMT -5
Please Kid, which specific parts do you disagree with. Provide supporting links with your reasoning
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Post by TheBondKid on Sept 10, 2012 10:49:30 GMT -5
<<<1) 3 division with $1.5 billion in revenues, and appx. $180 million in 2012 EBITDA. Fair value is 8.5 times EBITDA and 1 times sales ESTIMATE: $1.5 billion in proceeds. 2) Digital Image patents ESTIMATE: $2.25 Billion (minimum) >>>
These could both be wildly overstated as most of his claims over the past year have PROVEN to be.
*2.2 billion patent sale is not believable by anyone
good luck
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Post by mglassma on Sept 10, 2012 10:52:48 GMT -5
Kid will they push back the POR if there is no patent sale or division sale by the oct 15th? It is making more and more sense that patents will be sold with the division.
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Post by TheBondKid on Sept 10, 2012 10:54:00 GMT -5
Kid will they push back the POR if there is no patent sale or division sale by the oct 15th? It is making more and more sense that patents will be sold with the division. Who knows......All I know is the debt says common is worth FAR less than its trading
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Post by TheBondKid on Sept 10, 2012 10:57:52 GMT -5
Kid will they push back the POR if there is no patent sale or division sale by the oct 15th? It is making more and more sense that patents will be sold with the division. Plus the bonds have yet to rally in the wake of any of kodaks press releases over the past month. SO there is very little faith anything at kodak is going well.
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Post by proforkodak on Sept 10, 2012 11:01:33 GMT -5
The kid/MORON has NO ability to ANALYZE FACTS.
The Kid/MORON is just a Wall st BUTT SNIFFER.
If Wall pays off the rating agencies to get AAA on a sausages of CRAPOLA that trade at 100, then the kid/MORON thinks they must be good.
IF Wall st does NOT pay attention to the FUNDAMENTAL INTRINSIC VALUE of Kodak's ASSETS and the OVER stating of Kodak's liabilities, then Kid/MORON goes along.
Kid/MORON does NOT understand accounting.
Kid/MORON does NOT understand business valuation.
Kid/MORON talks his book!
Kid/MORON is a WORTHLESS human being!!!
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Post by TheBondKid on Sept 10, 2012 11:05:03 GMT -5
The kid/MORON has NO ability to ANALYZE FACTS. The Kid/MORON is just a Wall st BUTT SNIFFER. If Wall pays off the rating agencies to get AAA on a sausages of CRAPOLA that trade at 100, then the kid/MORON thinks they must be good. IF Wall st does NOT pay attention to the FUNDAMENTAL INTRINSIC VALUE of Kodak's ASSETS and the OVER stating of Kodak's liabilities, then Kid/MORON goes along. Kid/MORON does NOT understand accounting. Kid/MORON does NOT understand business valuation. Kid/MORON talks his book! Kid/MORON is a WORTHLESS human being!!! Lets get fired up! We shall see who is right very shortly...... I'll take the bonds...... My bet is you go out worthless kicking and screaming
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Post by coxatdotnet on Sept 10, 2012 18:15:03 GMT -5
Bump
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Post by proforkodak on Sept 10, 2012 18:23:47 GMT -5
>>>"Lets get fired up! We shall see who is right very shortly...... I'll take the bonds.."<<<
INFANTILE MORON,
EVERYONE KNOWS that YOU own bonds!
Can YOU NOW SHUT YOUR PIE HOLE!!!
EVERYONE KNOWS your opinion of the shares!!!
Can YOU NOW SHUT YOUR PIE HOLE?
YOU have NO FACTS to offer, besides reciting the price of the bonds that you own OVER and OVER until EVERYONE WANTS to GAG YOU and throw you down the basement stairs.
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Post by TheBondKid on Sept 10, 2012 18:29:33 GMT -5
>>>"Lets get fired up! We shall see who is right very shortly...... I'll take the bonds.."<<< INFANTILE MORON, EVERYONE KNOWS that YOU own bonds! Can YOU NOW SHUT YOUR PIE HOLE!!! EVERYONE KNOWS your opinion of the shares!!! Can YOU NOW SHUT YOUR PIE HOLE? YOU have NO FACTS to offer, besides reciting the price of the bonds that you own OVER and OVER until EVERYONE WANTS to GAG YOU and throw you down the basement stairs. Pro I will shut my pie hole when you explain to people why they could lose all their money when the auction process fails...... Asset sales aint going to bring value to common......its all going to debt holders, this you dont understand......You soon will
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Post by bullishbear32 on Sept 10, 2012 21:31:15 GMT -5
BUMP
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Post by tvstockpix on Sept 11, 2012 10:57:56 GMT -5
bump
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Post by coxatdotnet on Sept 11, 2012 14:02:41 GMT -5
Bump
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