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Post by proforkodak on Sept 17, 2012 19:04:49 GMT -5
1)My over $10 INTRINSIC VALUE analysis is based upon Kodak eventually selling EVERYTHING. 2)The current plan would leave Kodak with ONLY the CORE commercial print function print, and packaging. 3)MAXIMIZING the value of those businesses sooner than later, would entail SELLING them. kodak.boards.net/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=54Know NOTHING about Kodak, Do you have ANY ability to understand financial analysis? 4) If Kodak decided to also sell off the CORE printing businesses NOW they would be worth less than if Kodak waited for the Digital efforts to mature over the next couple years. 5) BUT, I question if Kodak would have the cash flow to be profitable from operations on such a small revenue base, while trying to continue to fund important R & D efforts. 6) IF Kodak does decide to sell the CORE sooner than later, that would produce a MUCH better outcome than WHOLESALING the company now. 7)If Kodak exits ch.11 with only the CORE, they would probably be taken over, and they would have NO defense against a takeout on the cheap. 8)Selling under the protection of ch.7 would allow Kodak protection to sell off the remaining businesses in a controlled fashion.
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Post by Admin on Sept 17, 2012 19:06:56 GMT -5
Nice, now you say we are going Chapter 7?
Isn't that the bad one?
Like where we get wiped no matter what?
SBG
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Post by proforkodak on Sept 17, 2012 19:14:22 GMT -5
SBG, You clearly have ZERO understanding of what ch.7 means.
It just means that the company will SELL everything!!!
THAT is WHAT YOU WANT!!!
YOU are a total IMBECILE!!!
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Post by newyorkled2008 on Sept 17, 2012 19:18:04 GMT -5
Nice, now you say we are going Chapter 7? Isn't that the bad one? Like where we get wiped no matter what? SBG LOL SBG, don't you feel sometimes like we're in the middle of an Abbott and Costello Routine?
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Post by Admin on Sept 17, 2012 19:20:38 GMT -5
I was never advocating Chapter 7!
I was advocating a buy out!
You have just proven to everyone you are unqualified to talk to anyone about buying anything!
You shouldn't even tell someone to buy a bag of potatoes!
You are going to be responsible for everyone losing their asses and money Pro.
Now you are pitching we are going to Chapter 7!
SBG
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Post by busted1964 on Sept 17, 2012 19:21:11 GMT -5
Pro, So what road are we going down?
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Post by proforkodak on Sept 17, 2012 19:30:26 GMT -5
IABILITIES: 1)$1.2 billion OPEB estimate: 90% NOT a legal claim, will be canceled. 2) $2 billion pension ESTIMATES $800 million eliminated from NEW US pension LAW. $1.2 billion eliminated thru cash buyouts. CASH COST estimate: $500 million. This leaves $2.85 billion in liabilities that must be satisfied for Kodak to pay off ALL claims and exit ch.11 with NO debt. $660 million of first lien DIP financing $750 million of 2nd lien bonds $250 million of bonds due in 2013 $400 million of convertible bonds (the ones to buy) $ 500 million of other valid claims $ 200 million of accrued interest TOTAL CASH COST to ELIMINATE ALL DEBT: $3.4 billion ASSETS: CASH at year end 2012: $1.1 Billion Kodak has announced it is selling: 1) 3 division with $1.5 billion in revenues, and appx. $180 million in 2012 EBITDA. Fair value is 8.5 times EBITDA and 1 times sales ESTIMATE: $1.5 billion in proceeds. 2) Digital Image patents ESTIMATE: $2.25 Billion (minimum) 3)Other NON core assets that have yet to be announced, but will be SOLD: 1) Real Estate: ESTIMATE: $400 million 2) consumer printer business: ESTIMATE: $ 0 3) commercial film business: ESTIMATE: $200 million ****************************************************************************************** PROCEEDS from SALES plus CASH: $5.6 Billion NET CASH less $3.4 billion in liabilities: $2.2 Billion ******************************************************************************************* SHAREHOLDER EQUITY: REMAINING CORE business EQUITY after ALL sales: 1) Digital & functional printing at 10X 2014 EBITDA: ESTIMATE: $1.5 billion 2)Graphics division at 8 times 2014 EBITDA and 1 times sales: ESTIMATE: $1.4 Billion CASH ESTIMATE: $2 billion NET INTRINSIC value: $4.9 billion or appx. $14/share fully diluted **Research done by Pro** Read more: kodak.boards.net/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=54#ixzz26mDdeihd
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Post by proforkodak on Sept 17, 2012 19:31:55 GMT -5
I told YOU MORONS a THOUSAND TIMES:
The BOD is trying to MAXIMIZE shareholder value!!!
SELLING out the whole company will produce LESS than selling off EACH business SEPARATELY!!
WHY are YOU SUCH a MORON!!!!
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Post by phisleuth on Sept 17, 2012 19:35:42 GMT -5
Fucking hilarious
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Post by stevelwr on Sept 17, 2012 20:08:06 GMT -5
SBG,you do know Pro is messing with you don't you. Ch 7 is as bad as you think it is-maybe worse. Pro does not really want that. He's kidding. While you do sell (liquidate) everything in 7, it is worse than a fire sale and common would be wiped out unless assets exceeded liabilities, in which case you wouldn't be in 7.
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Post by trojan500 on Sept 17, 2012 20:15:18 GMT -5
This is like a train wreck in SLOW motion...
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Post by simpleanswer on Sept 17, 2012 20:42:26 GMT -5
Pro is right stating that the US Kodak Pension plan would be 100% funded under the new law if Kodak chose to use the revised calculation in 2012. They have choosen to not apply the new calculation this year and wait until 2013. The reason for this is that if they applied the new calc this year they would be 100% funded and would start paying lump sum payments from the pension plan to those who are layed off this year (rather than an annuity which they will receive) and those who retired this year and wanted a lump but are receiving an annuity instead. The PBGC said that they would start proceedings to take over the Kodak plan if Kodak did this. If the PBGC took it over the plan would no longer be funded at 100% since their calculation of the funding level would lead to a number closer to the 73% (new law no impact) and probably lower because they include some other Kodak pensions in the total funding calc. Kodak,likely their BOD, did not want PBGC to take over the plan, which would result in many retirees getting a cut in benefits since the plan would be significantly underfunded under PBGC. A key point is that if Kodak goes Chapter 7 the PBGC takes over the plan and therefore the PBGC would look to recover as much of the underfunding as possible. Therefore in Chapter 7 the pension shortfall would be at least $2.2B (including Europe) and likely up to $.3B more. If Pro does not believe this he will need to follow up with the PBGC and significantly improve his understanding of the PBGC and how it does its calculations. I will comment on some of the other calculations if I can find the time, specifically the valuations of the businesses, that rely on Kodak forecasts to 2014, check past investor presentations for accuracy of revenue forecasts.
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Post by mikewestveer on Sept 17, 2012 20:44:31 GMT -5
THank you, I would most appreciate your calculations.
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Post by Admin on Sept 17, 2012 20:47:26 GMT -5
No Steve, I didnt know Pro was messing with me, as I thought at all times he was serious about his calculations.
I really think he is going off the deep end, and unable to keep it together at this time.
SBG
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Post by bullishbear32 on Sept 17, 2012 21:04:54 GMT -5
"If Kodak exits ch.11 with only the CORE, they would probably be taken over, and they would have NO defense against a takeout on the cheap."
But what is "on the cheap?" Cheap is relative and many investors here have taken the opportunity to average down along the way. I, for one, would be thrilled if this company was bout at a PPS of $3
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Post by proforkodak on Sept 17, 2012 21:35:02 GMT -5
>>>"A key point is that if Kodak goes Chapter 7 the PBGC takes over the plan and therefore the PBGC would look to recover as much of the underfunding as possible.;<<<
Simple answer, This may be the case, so using ch.7 to FULLY sell of everything would NOT be the right course.
MY ONLY point was that SELLING OFF everything will BRING more than selling the a MIS MOSH of different businesses together.
Kodak needs to OFF load its pensions by paying an insurance company to take over the plans.
GM was able to offload $29 billion in pension OBLIGATIONS for appx. $3.5 billion. I assumed those plans were fully funded. So, if Kodak fully funded its foreign plans using a REALISTIC Discount rate that would cost appx. $650 million.
Then Kodak would have appx. $8 billion in FULL pension obligations.
Using the same ratio as in the GM deal with Prudential, it would cost Kodak an additional $1 billion to eliminate its pensions, by selling them to an insurance company.
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Post by onoudidint on Sept 18, 2012 6:00:17 GMT -5
are you saying the shares are halted ? cancelled ?
rally on !
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Post by revinkevin on Sept 18, 2012 9:04:33 GMT -5
Sweet Jesus. Sweet baby Jesus. So now we are saying Chapter 7 would be a good thing Ch 7 is when they put the padlocks on the door and the liquidators show up and start selling the light fixtures and office chairs so the creditors will get something out of the mess. And if that happens you actually think the share holders will see a penny Well at least you covered all your bases. Ek won't get delisted. Being delisted is good as we can load up on the cheap. Ek won't go BK. BK is good so we won't get a hostile takeover. Wow. Just fooking wow.
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Post by stevelwr on Sept 18, 2012 9:18:29 GMT -5
I only hope that Pro is just being Pro, and doesn't really want/believe Ch 7 would be a good thing. It clearly would not. If he really wants Ch 7, he might as well pack his bags and move to another stock, because this one, along with its shareholders, would be down the tubes. I am still holding out hope. If I thought for a minute that they were going to move to 7, I would be out, if there was any price left at which to sell.
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Post by trojan500 on Sept 18, 2012 10:51:24 GMT -5
Sweet Jesus. Sweet baby Jesus. So now we are saying Chapter 7 would be a good thing Ch 7 is when they put the padlocks on the door and the liquidators show up and start selling the light fixtures and office chairs so the creditors will get something out of the mess. And if that happens you actually think the share holders will see a penny Well at least you covered all your bases. Ek won't get delisted. Being delisted is good as we can load up on the cheap. Ek won't go BK. BK is good so we won't get a hostile takeover. Wow. Just fooking wow. +1 It's been downright amazing to watch someone who prides themselves in being FACTUAL, to go from Kodak won't be delisted . . . to being delisted is a "good" thing because it allows you to load up on cheap shares . . . to Kodak won't go BK (and I'll sue Bloomberg and the WSJ for saying so last Fall) . . . to Chapter 11 BK is "good" because it means Kodak will protect itself from being taken-over on the cheap . . . to now calling for Chapter 7, but having no clue as to how totally destructive such a filing would be for shareholders. And to think that someone's been spending thousands of hours trying to defend/support their "facts" every step of the way with their posts.
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